Why it (sort of) makes sense for the us to impose ledderhose disease pictures tariffs our finite world

In this post, I will explain what is going wrong and how Donald ledderhose disease pictures Trump’s actions fit in with the situation we are facing. Strangely enough, there is a physics aspect to what is happening, even though it is likely that Donald Trump and the ledderhose disease pictures voters who elected him would probably not recognize this. In fact, the world economy seems to be on the cusp of ledderhose disease pictures a shrinking-back event, with or without the tariffs. Adding tariffs is an indirect way of allowing the US ledderhose disease pictures to obtain a better position in the new, shrunken economy, if this is really possible.

The upcoming shrinking-back event is the result of too little energy consumption ledderhose disease pictures in relation to total world population. Most researchers have completely missed the possibility that energy limits ledderhose disease pictures could manifest themselves as excessive wage disparity. In fact, they have tended to assume that energy limits would manifest ledderhose disease pictures themselves as high energy prices, especially for oil.

The world’s networked economy doesn’t work in the simple way that most researchers have ledderhose disease pictures assumed. Too much wage disparity tends to lead to low energy ledderhose disease pictures prices, rather than high, because of increasing affordability issues. The result is energy prices that are too low for ledderhose disease pictures producers, rather than too high for consumers. Producers (such as OPEC nations) willingly cut back on production in an attempt to get ledderhose disease pictures prices back up. The resulting shortage can be expected to more closely resemble ledderhose disease pictures financial collapse than high prices and a need for rationing. Trump’s tariffs may provide the US a better position, if the world economy should partially collapse.

If China is to manufacture goods and services for the ledderhose disease pictures world economy as well as its own people, it needs a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy. China’s largest source of energy is coal. China’s coal production hit a peak in 2013 and has ledderhose disease pictures been on a bumpy plateau, or falling, since. The problem has been a combination of (a) a higher cost of coal production, because existing mines are depleting, combined with (b) coal prices that do not rise high enough to make ledderhose disease pictures production from these mines profitable.

Of course, if coal prices were to rise higher, China would have a different, but equally serious problem: The cost of finished goods created for the world marketplace ledderhose disease pictures would be quite a bit higher, making it difficult to export them profitably. If customers’ wages rose at the same time coal prices rose, there would be no problem. The problem could be described in some sense as growing ledderhose disease pictures mining inefficiency because of coal depletion. Unfortunately, the world economy does not reward a shift toward inefficiency.

Economies around the world depend on China for many manufactured ledderhose disease pictures goods. In fact, for many minerals, China’s usage amounts to over half of the world’s consumption. This arrangement doesn’t really make sense because (a) China cannot really be depended on for the long term ledderhose disease pictures because of coal depletion, (b) jobs that pay well in Advanced Economies are being lost ledderhose disease pictures to China and other Emerging Markets, and (c) the level of concentration of manufacturing in China puts the ledderhose disease pictures world system at risk if China has any kind of ledderhose disease pictures adverse shift in its economy.

Reason #1. The issue underlying rising costs of fossil fuels is nearly ledderhose disease pictures always depletion. For example, with coal mines, the coal closest to the surface in the thickest seams ledderhose disease pictures is extracted first. As this is depleted, deeper coal in thinner seams can also be extracted, but the cost tends to be higher. When depletion takes place, it is nearly always possible to extract more of the ledderhose disease pictures given fuel if some combination of more human labor and ledderhose disease pictures more technology (powered by energy) is used. Of course, adding labor and/or technology leads to a higher cost of production.

But the prices of commodities are not determined based on ledderhose disease pictures the cost of production; prices are determined in the marketplace. They reflect the quantity of finished goods and services made ledderhose disease pictures with these commodities, that consumers (in the aggregate) can afford. Extracting coal or another fuel in what is essentially a ledderhose disease pictures less efficient manner doesn’t add to what consumers can afford. The combination of flat prices and higher costs leads to ledderhose disease pictures unprofitable producers–precisely China’s problem. Producers tend to cut back on production.

Economists, sitting in their ivory towers, have not stopped to think through the obvious. Their standard supply and demand curve does not work for ledderhose disease pictures energy because an adequate supply of cheap energy is needed ledderhose disease pictures for both the demand for goods and services (coming from wages workers earn) and the supply of goods and services. Once affordability becomes a problem, because too many people have low wages, the prices of fuels stop rising. It is the fact that prices don’t rise high enough that causes the “peaking” of oil, natural gas, and coal production. Extraction stops, even though there seem to be plenty of resources still ledderhose disease pictures available with current technology.

As shown in Figure 4 (above), China’s coal production stopped rising in 2013, keeping the total amount of energy it produces close to ledderhose disease pictures flat. To compensate for this shortfall, China has started to import oil, coal and natural gas. The difference between the thick black line and the top ledderhose disease pictures of the “stack” of types of energy produced in China (in Figure 7 below) represents the quantity of fuel that it has needed to ledderhose disease pictures import. Clearly, this quantity has been increasing.

Unfortunately, there is a significant chance that major parts of the ledderhose disease pictures world economy will start collapsing, with or without Trump’s tariffs and the trade war, because energy supplies worldwide are not growing sufficiently. In fact, some of these energy supplies are purposely being removed by ledderhose disease pictures producers, such as Saudi Arabia, because prices are too low.

By putting tariffs on some goods, Trump is providing a substitute for the missing high oil ledderhose disease pictures prices needed to slow the growth of globalization, if the issue of ever-increasing wage disparity is to be solved. The tariffs tend to raise the value of the US ledderhose disease pictures dollar relative to other currencies, making the cost of commodities (including fossil fuels) cheaper for US consumers than for other consumers around the ledderhose disease pictures world. The tariffs tend to encourage new investment in US production ledderhose disease pictures of many types, at the same time that they make investment in other ledderhose disease pictures countries, such as China, less appealing.

All of these changes indirectly give the US an advantage ledderhose disease pictures if there should be a partial collapse of the world ledderhose disease pictures economy. With the benefit of the tariffs, perhaps the partial collapse would leave some combination of countries, including the US and Canada, mostly unaffected. There might be other groups remaining as well. Weak economies, such as Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti, would likely be pushed aside. Even Europe and Japan would likely have major problems.

A modern car, for marketing purposes presumably, has an ‘infotainment’ system that computer controls just about everything. Very nice, I suppose, if one’s road systems or incident recovery strategies mean you will ledderhose disease pictures be spending many more hours in the vehicle going nowhere ledderhose disease pictures because roads are closed but totally pointless for basic A ledderhose disease pictures to B travel needs.

Once upon a time this was known as planned obsolescence ledderhose disease pictures and was generally driven by people’s desire to have the latest and greatest status symbol ledderhose disease pictures since other than looks nothing much changed technically for years ledderhose disease pictures and the maintainable vehicles could pass down through the earnings ledderhose disease pictures pyramid providing utility to justify the initial cost of the ledderhose disease pictures build labour and materials. Until rust or an accident or a major mechanical failure ledderhose disease pictures due to poor maintenance eventually led to their demise.

So manufacturers started to build vehicles that, with minimal care, had metal bodies that would last for 20 years rather ledderhose disease pictures than 5 on rust zones and engines and transmissions that ledderhose disease pictures would last 250,000 miles (or much more in some high mileage usage cases) instead of 50,000 miles. A far better use of mined metals and the energy ledderhose disease pictures that went into creating and distributing the vehicles than had ledderhose disease pictures previously been the case since ‘modern’ vehicles came into being in the late 1940s and and ledderhose disease pictures the 1950s through 60s.

As safety demands moved on this situation developed and the ledderhose disease pictures concept of now claiming on insurance for accident compensation, paid through ever increasing insurance premiums reflecting the greater risk ledderhose disease pictures of vehicle replacement rather than repair, now meant that roofs were cut off vehicles, making them trash, any time someone answered “a little” to the question “Do you have any neck pain?”

The manufacturers were not averse to seeing their vehicles chopped ledderhose disease pictures apart so readily. In a small way it would help them replace the ledderhose disease pictures complexity of long term spare parts supply by selling the ledderhose disease pictures story of “continual improvement” and so regular changes to components – especially electronic components – that would make long term spare parts logistics an expensive ledderhose disease pictures problem.

If you think an electronic component will last about 8 ledderhose disease pictures years but your constant development means it’s life in manufacturing is less than a year, what do you do about making extra boards during the ledderhose disease pictures manufacturing run in order to set them aside (accepting storage costs) for 8 years and then hoping that there are enough ledderhose disease pictures vehicles out there with enough failures to justify the stocking ledderhose disease pictures costs?

Once you have a business model that offers a 20 ledderhose disease pictures year product for marketing purposes but only a few years ledderhose disease pictures of realistic support for maintenance needs it is quite easy ledderhose disease pictures to change management policies away from ‘make them last for long term profit from maintenance activities’ (where keeping things maintainable and the same for as long ledderhose disease pictures as possible would be desirable) to ‘we are just selling a box and letting go as ledderhose disease pictures soon as out warranty expires’, the underlying philosophy is likely to change.

So the problem with adding complexity is that it, in effect, reduces the return on the energy expended to build the ledderhose disease pictures product and brings forward the point at which replacement and ledderhose disease pictures the use of energy to make the replacement is necessary. Also the cost of disposing of what might well be ledderhose disease pictures perfectly usable but ‘too expensive to risk repairing’ items.

Modern environmental activists unified behind calls for a change in ledderhose disease pictures how humans understood their relationships with nature. Yet they approached their concerns through a variety of historical ledderhose disease pictures lenses. Countering arguments that suggest environmentalism had its deepest roots in ledderhose disease pictures outdoor leisure, the countercultural back-to-the-land movement turned to a markedly American practice of pastoral ledderhose disease pictures mythmaking that held rural life and labor as counter to ledderhose disease pictures the urban-industrial condition. Counterculturalists relied specifically on notions of simple work in rural ledderhose disease pictures collective endeavors as the means to producing a healthy body ledderhose disease pictures and environment. Yet the individuals who went back-to-the-land often failed to remedy conflicts that arose as they ledderhose disease pictures attempted to abandon American consumer practices and take up a ledderhose disease pictures “primitive” and down-to-early pastoral existence. Contact with rural nature time and again translated to physical ledderhose disease pictures maladies, impoverishment, and community clashes in many rural countercultural communes. As the back-to-the-land encounter faded, the greater movement’s ethos did not disappear. Counterculturalists used the consumption of nature through rural labor as ledderhose disease pictures a fundamental idea in a growing cooperative food movement. The back-to-the-land belief in the connection between healthy bodies, environments, and a collective identity helped to expand a new form ledderhose disease pictures of consumer environmentalism.

Read the manuscript and tales to put shivers up ones ledderhose disease pictures spine regarding the drudgery and hardship to exist in harmony ledderhose disease pictures with nature. This translated in not nice behavior to ones fellow community ledderhose disease pictures members. FE was right, nawing on a turnip and some bitter greens, along with a couple of crab apples will try ones ledderhose disease pictures nerves after enjoying the bounty of BAU.

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